According to The Kobeissi Letter, citing NY Fed data, US consumers now expect rent prices to surge by 8.4% over the next year, marking the highest projection in two years and a significant jump compared to the previous five-year average below 6.0%. This sharp rise in consumer inflation expectations could lead traders to anticipate further volatility in traditional markets and potentially drive increased interest in cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH as inflation hedges. Source: The Kobeissi Letter via NY Fed, June 12, 2025.

According to Compounding Quality on Twitter, aggregate supply refers to the total output that producers are willing to make, and it increases as businesses invest and produce more goods (source: @QCompounding, June 9, 2025). For traders, higher aggregate supply signals expanding economic activity, which can strengthen traditional markets and influence crypto sentiment. Increased business investment may boost demand for blockchain solutions and digital assets, potentially leading to greater liquidity and volatility in major cryptocurrencies. Monitoring aggregate supply trends can help crypto traders anticipate shifts in investor appetite and broader market momentum.

According to Compounding Quality (@QCompounding), the rise in unemployment rates directly reduces consumer spending and overall economic activity, which historically correlates with heightened volatility across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies (Source: Twitter, June 9, 2025). For crypto traders, elevated unemployment can lead to lower liquidity and increased price swings, as traditional markets face downward pressure and risk-off sentiment spills into digital assets. Monitoring unemployment figures is essential for anticipating shifts in trading volume, market confidence, and potential entry or exit points in popular assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

According to Compounding Quality, a recession is marked by economic contraction, resulting in job losses and decreased consumer spending (source: @QCompounding, June 9, 2025). Historically, such downturns generate heightened volatility in cryptocurrency markets as traditional investors seek alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should monitor shifts in institutional capital flows and increased trading volumes on major exchanges, as recessions often drive interest in decentralized finance products and stablecoins for risk management. Understanding macroeconomic signals during recession periods is critical for optimizing crypto trading strategies and mitigating downside risk (source: @QCompounding, June 9, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US job openings have declined to a 3-year low, with the 3-month moving average dropping to 7.36 million in April 2025, based on BLS data. This figure is now below the pre-pandemic peak of late 2018. The shrinking ratio of job openings to unemployed signals a cooling labor market, which could influence Federal Reserve policy and risk asset appetite, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, softer labor markets may reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes, which can provide short-term relief to Bitcoin and altcoins as investors seek alternative assets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, BLS, June 5, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US government spending has averaged approximately 9% of GDP over the past five years, surpassing Civil War levels and nearly matching the 2008 financial crisis peak (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 3, 2025). This elevated spending persists despite a low unemployment rate of 4% and widespread expectations of a 'soft landing' in financial markets. For cryptocurrency traders, sustained high fiscal deficits may increase concerns about long-term US dollar stability and inflationary pressures, potentially driving increased demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets as alternative stores of value.

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), recent data shows that US consumer expectations about future finances have reached their worst levels in recorded history as of May 2025. This development signals heightened economic uncertainty and could lead to increased speculation about potential Federal Reserve intervention or monetary easing. Historically, such macroeconomic pessimism has driven investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as hedges against inflation and fiat risk. Crypto traders should closely monitor further economic data releases and any signals of monetary policy changes to anticipate potential market-moving events (source: André Dragosch, Twitter, May 22, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter citing Kalshi, the probability of a US recession in 2025 has sharply decreased to 38%, marking a 33 percentage point drop since late April. This reduction in recession risk signals improved economic outlooks, which typically support risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Traders may interpret this trend as a bullish signal for Bitcoin and altcoins, as lower recession odds often lead to increased liquidity and appetite for higher-yield assets (source: @KobeissiLetter, @Kalshi). Crypto market participants should monitor macroeconomic data closely for continued shifts in sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US homebuilder confidence fell by 6 points in May 2025, dropping to 34, which is the lowest level since November 2023 and marks the second-largest monthly decline since 2020 (source: Zerohedge, The Kobeissi Letter). All three components of the sentiment index contributed to the downturn, indicating broad weakness in the housing sector. For crypto market traders, this sharp decline in housing sentiment could signal increased economic uncertainty and potential shifts in investor capital toward digital assets as risk-off sentiment grows in traditional markets. Monitoring the correlation between falling real estate confidence and crypto inflows is recommended for active traders.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 1.4 points to 52.2, marking the second-lowest level ever recorded and signaling deeper economic pessimism than during the 2008 financial crisis and the 1980s recession (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 17, 2025). With current conditions also falling 2.2 points to 57.6, traders should be aware that such negative sentiment has historically triggered risk-off behavior in traditional equities, which can increase volatility and safe-haven demand in the crypto market. Crypto investors may see increased interest in Bitcoin and stablecoins as alternatives to traditional assets during periods of deteriorating consumer confidence.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), while major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMC predicted a recession, a V-shaped recovery in the stock index materialized last month. This shift followed the announcement of the US-China trade deal, which has led banks to revise their economic outlook. For traders, this reversal in sentiment suggests enhanced market volatility and potential opportunities in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency sector, as correlated assets like Bitcoin often react to macroeconomic shifts and policy changes (source: @RhythmicAnalyst, May 16, 2025).

According to Brad Freeman (@StockMarketNerd), optimism is rising for a potential U.S.-China trade deal this summer following tonight's news release (source: Twitter, May 7, 2025). This renewed confidence in global economic relations is leading to increased risk appetite among traders, which is historically linked to positive momentum in the cryptocurrency market. Investors are closely monitoring developments, as a successful trade agreement could fuel further gains in major crypto assets by reducing macroeconomic uncertainty and stimulating capital flows into digital assets.